What it is. A long-bias filter for ES/SPX futures. When both Fed liquidity is expanding (top-tercile 5-day change vs trailing 2yr) and financial conditions are easing (NFCI falling fast, also top-tercile), the filter flags ACTIVE. Historical edge on ACTIVE days: +86 bps over the next 5 trading days at 74.6% hit rate, vs +24.5 bps / 60.6% baseline.

How to use it. This is an overlay, not an entry signal. When ACTIVE, lean long / size up swing trades you'd take anyway. When inactive, don't flip short — draining regimes underperform but don't reliably lose. Edge concentrates in the next ~5 trading days, so it pairs with 1-week holding periods, not intraday.

Validation. Walk-forward with rolling 504-day point-in-time thresholds (no look-ahead). Out-of-sample (train 2015–23, frozen, test 2024–26): +108 bps / 79.5% hit rate — stronger than in-sample. Full methodology and null-tests in HANDOFF.md.